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Florida 2060 Report - A Not Friendly for Wildlife Future?
What will Florida look like in 2060, when its population is projected to reach almost 36 million? Will current patterrns of development offer a sustainable future for Florida natural landscapes and wildlife.
Florida 2060: A Population Distribution Scenario for the
State of Florida
The progression of population growth in Florida from 2005 to 2060 following today's patterns of development. Such a distribution of projected population will have dire consequences for habitats and wildlife
The companion study, entitled A Time for Leadership: Growth Management and Florida 2060 outlines steps that need to be taken today to protect the environment and quality of life while accommodating growth. The study calls for a shift to "growth leadership" in Florida - a proactive approach to plan for the future that encourages large-scale, long-term planning and development that is both sustainable and environmentally friendly.
Prepared by the Center for Quality Growth and Regional Development at the Georgia Institute of Technology, A Time for Leadership notes that the governor, state legislators, and citizens can change the course of development in Florida through deliberate growth leadership. Overarching recommendations include:
* Expand Florida Forever. Accelerate and expand this highly successful natural-lands acquisition program to permanently protect not only natural lands and open and recreation space, but also agricultural and forestry lands.
* Adopt New Policy on Conversion of Rural Lands to Urban Use. New public policy should mandate that the conversion of rural land to urban density only be allowed in return for significant public benefit, especially the preservation of natural lands, open space, and agricultural lands.
* Create a 100-Year Legacy Plan. The statewide plan should identify the lands for permanent protection from development and lands that are appropriate for development and redevelopment. All state funding should be consistent with the Legacy Plan.
* Identify Leaders and Galvanize Support. Identify champions to organize and advocate for Florida's vision and plans. Such leadership must come from a broad cross section of Floridians who believe that our future is far too important to just let it happen.
With close to 18 million residents in 2005, Florida already is overwhelmed with the ramifications of rampant sprawl, rapidly vanishing natural areas, and overcrowded roads. What will Florida look like in 2060, when its population is projected to reach almost 36 million? Will current patterrns of development offer a sustainable future for Florida natural landscapes and wildlife.
To help address these questions, 1000 Friends of Florida contracted with the University of Florida's GeoPlan Center to develop a "population distribution scenario" for the state. 1000 Friends also contracted with the Center for Quality Growth and Regional Development at the Georgia Institute of Technology to provide guidance to state leadership and citizens on how to deal with this growth in a more proactive manner.
Links to the full studies and regional fact sheets are provided below. Also available are the Executive Summary with graphics, a Statewide Summary, and the news release.
For the complete study and graphics Click Here
* Roughly 7 million acres of additional land will be converted from rural to urban uses in Florida, including 2.7 million acres of existing agricultural lands and 2.7 million acres of native habitat.
* More than two million acres within one mile of existing conservation lands will be converted to an urban use, which will complicate their management and isolate some conservation lands in a sea of urbanization.
* The counties projected to undergo the most dramatic transformation, in rank order, will be Glades, Hardee, DeSoto, Hendry, Osceola, Baker, Flagler and Santa Rosa.
What does this mean for different parts of the state?
Central Florida-- This region will experience "explosive" growth, with continuous urban development from Ocala to Sebring, and St. Petersburg to Daytona Beach. The 1-75 and I-4 corridors are expected to be fully developed. Most of Florida's Heartland will convert to urban development, resulting in a dramatic loss of agricultural character and native Florida landscape that define this region today. Seminole, Orange, Brevard, Indian River, Pinellas, and Manatee counties are expected to build out in the period from 2020 to 2040, so population is projected to spill over into surrounding counties in the region. Virtually all the natural systems and wildlife corridors in this region will be fragmented, if not replaced, by urban development.
Southwest Florida
-- Charlotte, Lee and Collier counties are expected to build out before 2060, causing an almost continuous band of urban development along the southwest Florida coast and population spillover into adjacent inland counties. Large amounts of this spillover are projected for DeSoto, Hendry and Glades counties. These three counties are projected to experience the greatest transformation over the next 50 years as they go from largely rural to largely urban in character. The result will be an almost continuous urban strip linking Ft. Myers to West Palm Beach.
Southeast Florida
-- This region will become mostly urbanized, with the exception of some agricultural lands north and south of Lake Okeechobee. Surprisingly, in part because of the county's current patterns of high density development and remaining expanses of agricultural lands, Dade County is not projected to reach build out by 2060.
The Florida Keys
-- All vacant land vacant land in the Keys is projected to be developed, including areas not necessarily accessible by automobile.
Northeast Florida
-- Duval County is projected build out sometime after 2040, and by 2060 its population is anticipated to spill over into surrounding Nassau, Clay, St. Johns and Baker counties, forever changing their rural character.
Northwest Florida and the Big Bend -- Only the Panhandle and Big Bend are projected to retain significant areas of open space, and this is only if current growth and development patterns continue.
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